SEA Annual Lecture:

A minimum-disruption approach to input-output disaster analysis

Session abstract: There exists a number of disaster analysis streams that make use of input-output analysis. In this work, we are particularly interested in using input-output frameworks for investigating changes in consumption possibilities as a result of disaster-induced production shortfalls. We propose an improved disaster analysis approach, characterised by enabling spatial substitution, and by the ability to control for which parts of a multi-regional economy need to be shielded from the disaster. More specifically, first, we want to allow industries to substitute alternative inputs for reduced inputs. For example, industries may substitute unavailable inputs with imports of the identical product, or may use alternative technologies or materials. Second, we want to be able to specify that a disaster shall affect some intermediate or final demanders less than others, and some not at all. For example, partial power blackouts should affect schools only temporarily, supermarkets and cool-store facilities even less, and hospitals not at all. We apply our new approach to a case study: The consequences of Venezuela’s oil revenue plunge.

Speakers: Manfred Lenzen and Mengyu Li, The University of Sydney, Australia

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